In 2300, sea level will be at least 1 meter higher

In 2300, sea level will be at least 1 meter higher

Enlarge (credit: Andrew
Foster / Flickr
)

Climate change is often discussed in reference to where things
will be in 2100, but the story obviously doesn’t end that year.
Sea-level rise in particular has an impressive amount of inertia,
and a very long time will pass before it has played out fully. What
will our emissions have set in motion on longer time scales?

Projecting sea-level rise in the year 2100 is difficult enough,
partly because the behavior of the world’s ice sheets and glaciers
is varied and complex, and partly because it depends in a big way
on how much greenhouse gasses we continue emitting. Take future
emissions off the table, though, and it’s possible to think about
what happens out to 2300.

The future is real

That’s what a team led by Alexander
Nauels
did in an analysis based on a combination of our past
emissions and the current Paris Agreement pledges for emissions
through 2030. Nauels and his colleagues used a simple mathematical
model calibrated against the results published in the most
recent IPCC report
. Rather than running a massive global
simulation on a supercomputer, they calculated the relationship
between emissions and sea-level rise in previous
simulations—which projected out to the year 2300. This also
allowed them to quickly process multiple variations of their
question.

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Source: FS – All – Science – News
In 2300, sea level will be at least 1 meter higher